Introduction

Ammonium chloride itself still has a prominent cost-performance ratio, and downstream orders are being actively followed up. Factories have a large amount pending shipment, and overall delivery is smooth. Trading of ammonium chloride is active, and after the price increase, the profit for both soda ash and tonnage has limited recovery, with stable plant operations being the main focus. During the peak season for spring fertilizer, the supply of ammonium chloride remains stable while demand increases, leaving room for further price growth. Shipments in March are mainly fulfilling previous orders, and enterprise inventory levels are expected to continue to decline.

The domestic market performance of ammonium chloride is active, with factories having large amounts of pending shipments, facilitating smooth deliveries and causing prices to show a continuous upward trend. Profits on the supply side have recovered somewhat, but the extent is limited, and plant operating rates remain stable. Downstream spring fertilizer production activities are frequent, leading to temporary supply-demand tightness. On the raw material side, coal prices have fluctuated little, having limited impact on costs. In terms of foreign trade, urea exports are restricted, and high international nitrogen fertilizer prices are driving ammonium chloride export volumes to remain at a high level. Sales through both domestic and foreign trade channels are performing well, pushing ammonium chloride prices higher. Downstream buyers are actively replenishing inventories and placing orders, and companies are completing previous orders as planned, with overall inventory levels being relatively low. Reviewing the changes in ammonium chloride inventories of enterprises from 2024 to 2026 as shown in Figure 1, in 2025, China United Alkali’s monthly ammonium chloride inventory fluctuated between 320,000 and 700,000 tons, and by the end of March 2026, inventories are expected to be at a low level. According to a Soren Innovation estimate, United Alkali’s ammonium chloride inventory in March may be around 200,000 tons, a month-on-month drop of about 20% compared to the end of February, and a year-on-year decrease of 55%.

Supply: Starting at a low level, supply remains conservative

During the stage of profit recovery for ammonium chloride and soda ash, joint soda enterprises primarily focus on stable production, with sporadic planned maintenance in place. March is the peak season for domestic spring fertilizer production and sales, boosting enterprises' willingness to trade, and overall supply is expected to advance at a medium-high level. It is estimated that China's monthly ammonium chloride output in March will be around 1.5 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.46% and a year-on-year increase of 10.85%. By the end of March, the joint soda double-ton profit is about 150 yuan/ton, with enterprises maintaining stable production and sales, active demand follow-up, which is favorable for sustaining future prices.

Demand: Downstream stocking is active, and demand is performing well

The main downstream compound fertilizer users of ammonium chloride are expected to have a capacity utilization rate of about 50% in March, up 22.36 percentage points month-on-month and 0.51 percentage points year-on-year, with the increase in operation mainly driven by the spring seasonal demand. The cost-performance advantage of ammonium chloride continues, and downstream compound fertilizer purchasing is actively following up. In terms of foreign trade, the monthly export volume of fertilizer-grade ammonium chloride in February was about 220,000 tons. The export volume in March is expected to be around 250,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons month-on-month, up 13.64%; an increase of 120,000 tons year-on-year, up 92.31%. With the demand side of ammonium chloride improving, the estimated domestic consumption of ammonium chloride by compound fertilizer in March is about 1.74 million tons, and the estimated total monthly demand including domestic sales and foreign trade is 1.99 million tons. Demand is strong, and price upward signals continue to be released.

Outlook: Large volume pending release, corporate inventory remains at a low level

In summary, the supply of ammonium chloride has remained stable, with downstream restocking actively following up. Domestic sales are strong due to the peak season of rigid demand, combined with active exports, supporting the increase in shipments in March. Looking ahead, shipment fulfillment will be the main focus, with overall supply tight. Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that by the end of March, the mainstream ex-factory price of dry ammonium chloride in East and Central China is likely to range between 630-660 yuan/ton, and the inventory of ammonium chloride at Chinese Lianjia enterprises may fluctuate around a low level of 150,000 tons at the end of the month.